Third tropical system may develop before Atlantic Hurricane Season officially starts

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Third tropical system may develop before Atlantic Hurricane Season officially starts
The system was several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda, the NHC said Friday morning.
The system was several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda, the NHC said Friday morning.

(WEAHER.COM) — A broad area of low pressure in the central Atlantic is now unlikely going to be the third tropical or subtropical depression to form before hurricane season officially begins.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) tagged this system Invest 92L Thursday evening, a designation that allows for specialized computer models to be run on it.

The NHC gives this system low, and dwindling chance of development.

Invest 92L has been producing isolated thunderstorms and gusty winds in its northern semicircle and if this system were to develop, it would likely be subtropical in nature. This means that it will derive its energy from both warm water and from the jet stream, in this case the subtropical jet stream.

Development will likely be slow as both of those sources of energy will remain limited. Subtropical systems are also typically rather broad with an expansive wind field, which makes it more difficult for them to intensify.

The system, located 500 miles east of Bermuda and is expected to move generally northwestward over the next few days. Invest 92L will be guided northward initially by a large area of high pressure located just to the north of the tropical disturbance, then will be blocked from getting any closer to the United States or Canada by a cold front that is moving off the East Coast.

Bermuda will likely not be affected by this system directly, or by gusty winds or rainfall, but the cold front that will sweep it out to sea will bring some rain and gusty winds. Seas will be kicked up by both of these features.

The next system to attain tropical storm intensity will gain the name ‘Cristobal.’

Busy Season Ahead?

While we had Tropical Storm Arthur two weeks ago and Tropical Storm Bertha earlier this week, it is difficult at best to say how this hurricane season will go based on just the activity we have had so far.

Only one hurricane season has had three tropical or subtropical cyclones before June 1st: 1951. In that year, a tropical storm formed in January, followed by Hurricane Able and a tropical depression in May.

According to Colorado State University tropical scientist Phil Klotzbach, only four additional other years in records dating to 1851 produced two storms before June 1.

Three of these five previous seasons had an above-average number of storms and hurricanes.

That said, looking ahead at forecast conditions rather than history, an above-average hurricane season is anticipated by many forecast groups, including The Weather Company and NOAA.

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